The NFL has dubbed this weekend Super Wild Card Weekend because for the first time there will be tripleheaders both Saturday and Sunday. For those looking to head to the pay window, we’re offering up player prop bet predictions for each of the six games on NFL Wild Card Weekend.
NFL Wild Card Weekend prop bet payday
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Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6:15 p.m. ET.
You Joshing Me?
The FanDuel Sportsbook offers one of the best player prop options called same game parlays, which combine multiple bets from a single game into one massive parlay (moneylines, spreads and totals can be paired in these bets, too). They are challenging to win, but yield large dividends if predicted correctly. The uncertainty involving player injuries and teams resting players plays into that quite a bit. It’s also still only Thursday as I write this, so there is still plenty of time for even more week 17 NFL player props to emerge. As things stand prior to the New Year arriving, the week 17 NFL player props above are my favorites. NFL Prop Shop - FTNBets. @2020 Fade The Noise, LLC. All Right Reserved.
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen has an Over/Under for passing yards of 310.5 (Over: +105, Under: -128).
The Under number is a big one that might get some bettors to shy away, but the combination of a strong Indianapolis Colts defense, two teams with respectable rushing ability and the potential the Bills will take the air out of the ball if they get a big lead combine to make that number difficult to hit.
TAKE THE UNDER 310.5 (-128).
Sleepless in Seattle
Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson historically doesn’t light up the Los Angeles Rams defense. His Over/Under for passing yards is 253.5 (O: -105, U: -118).
It seems like a reasonable number, but, Wilson hasn’t hit 254 yards in eight of his last nine games against the Rams and this doesn’t look like the game he will break the longstanding trend.
TAKE THE UNDER 253.5 (-118).
Also see:Rams at Seahawks odds, picks and prediction
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The Buc Doesn’t Stop Here
Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady and his passing weapons will likely get the headlines prior to the game against the Washington Football Team, but the most important Buccaneers offensive player Saturday may be RB Ronald Jones.
His Over/Under for rushing yards is 55.5 (O: -140, U: +115). The Bucs have the ability to make a run and if they jump out early on Washington, Jones could see 20-plus carries. If he gets 15 rushes, he can top that small number, so this one seems too easy.
TAKE THE OVER 55.5 (-140).
Also see:Buccaneers at Washington odds, picks and prediction
Oh (No), Henry
Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry has an Over/Under for rushing yards of an astronomical 120.5 (O: -105, U: -118). He averaged more than that this season, and he also shredded Baltimore’s defense last year in the playoffs to send the No. 2 seed home.
Two things play against a huge game this time around. The Ravens have a solid run defense that will be selling out to make someone other than Henry beat them and the Ravens have the ability on offense to roll up a big score with an oppressive run game of their own. I love Henry, but with such a huge starting baseline number, I reluctantly have to say TAKE THE UNDER 120.5 (-118).
Sportsbook Nfl Betting Lines
Where There’s a Wil, There’s a Lutz
A typically shy away from kickers because it’s the least predictable position for prop bets. If an offense is clicking, they may score 5 points – all on extra points. An offense that struggles in the red zone may score 12 points in a game – all from a kicker on chip-shot field goals.
With the Saints, you have a team capable of scoring touchdowns, but one protective of the ball when in scoring position. PK Wil Lutz has an Over/Under of 7.5 points (O: -115, U: -110)) against the Chicago Bears. Chicago made the playoffs on the back of defense that allows almost as many field goal attempts as touchdowns. Lutz should get his chance to kick two or three field goals, especially if the Saints are milking a lead.
TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-115).
Also see:Bears at Saints odds, picks and prediction
In the Nick of Time
The Cleveland Browns are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2002 and RB Nick Chubb was a consistent factor in the games they won. He gets fed the ball 15-20 times per game and helps Cleveland control tempo and game flow. Chubb’s Over/Under for rushing yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers is 65.5 (O: -125, U: +100).
He has rushed for more than 90 yards in two of the last three meetings with Pittsburgh, including 112 yards last week. With Pittsburgh abandoning the run, the Browns will need to control tempo and the best way to do that is feed the ball to Chubb 15-20 times and Kareem Hunt 5-10 times.
TAKE THE OVER 65.5 (-125).
Also see:Browns at Steelers odds, picks and prediction
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Player props remain one of the more exploitable markets in sports betting. Using this tool and your own projections, you’ll be able to find which props offer the most value. Value, in this tool, is calculated as the difference between the implied odds from the line and the probability of covering based on your projections.
Nfl Player Props Sportsbook Odds
Included in this tool is a template for the projections that you’ll need to upload (NOTE: projections will need to be uploaded with these exact column headers). Also keep in mind that the odds and values will not appear until your projections have been uploaded. Finally, since the lines in the tool all come from DraftKings Sportsbook, there’s also a feature to adjust the odds or total for a specific player’s prop if you find a different price at a different book.